Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. in January 2024. They hold Bitcoin directly, so their return follows Bitcoin minus the yearly expense ratio. Bitcoin is extremely volatile – the return you enter is an assumption, not a forecast.
How to use the Bitcoin ETF Calculator
- Bitcoin ETF
- Custom expense ratio
- Investment amount
- Duration
- Other costs per year (spread, platform fee)
- Expected annual return of Bitcoin
Results update as you type, and every field accepts the units shown in its menu.
How it works
Choose an ETF (or enter your own expense ratio), the amount invested, the holding period and the yearly return you want to assume.
Tips
- Use the nominal annual rate and pick the compounding frequency your bank or broker states.
- Small differences in return or fees compound into large differences over decades.
- Run the calculation with a cautious, a central and an optimistic return to see the range of outcomes.
- Past returns do not guarantee future returns – nothing here is investment advice.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Comparing an APR with an APY or effective rate.
- Ignoring inflation, taxes and fees when judging a real return.
- Entering a percentage as a decimal (5 instead of 0.05 is correct here).
Inputs explained
| Field | What to enter |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin ETF | Choose one: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – 0.25%, Fidelity Wise Origin (FBTC) – 0.25%, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) – 1.50%, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) – 0.15% … |
| Custom expense ratio | In % |
| Investment amount | Amount in your currency |
| Duration | Units: years, months |
| Other costs per year (spread, platform fee) | In % |
| Expected annual return of Bitcoin | In % |
What each result means
- Effective annual return = ((1 + [Expected annual return of Bitcoin]÷100)×(1 – ([Expense ratio used] + [Other costs per year (spread, platform fee)])÷100) – 1)×100
- Future value of your investment = [Investment amount]×(1 + [Effective annual return]÷100)^[Duration]
- Value without any fees = [Investment amount]×(1 + [Expected annual return of Bitcoin]÷100)^[Duration]
- Total cost of the ETF = [Value without any fees] – [Future value of your investment]
Example values
How the main result changes when Custom expense ratio changes and everything else stays at the example values above:
| Custom expense ratio (%) | Future value of your investment |
|---|---|
| 0.15 | 19,863.41 |
| 0.225 | 19,863.41 |
| 0.3 | 19,863.41 |
| 0.375 | 19,863.41 |
| 0.45 | 19,863.41 |
| 0.6 | 19,863.41 |
Formula
Effective return = (1 + expected return) × (1 − expense ratio) − 1Future value = investment × (1 + effective return)^yearsCost of the ETF = value without fees − value with feesWorked example
Inputs — Bitcoin ETF: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – 0.25%; Custom expense ratio: 0.3 %; Investment amount: $10,000; Duration: 5 years; Other costs per year (spread, platform fee): 0 %; Expected annual return of Bitcoin: 15 %.
Results — Expense ratio used = 0.25 %; Effective annual return = 14.71 %; Future value of your investment = $19,863.41; Value without any fees = $20,113.57; Total cost of the ETF = $250.17.
Frequently asked questions
What is a spot Bitcoin ETF?
A fund that holds Bitcoin and trades on a stock exchange like a share.
Which Bitcoin ETF is cheapest?
Expense ratios range from about 0.15% to 1.5%; check the provider's current fee.
Can I lose money in a Bitcoin ETF?
Yes – Bitcoin has fallen more than 70% several times.
What formula does the Bitcoin ETF Calculator use?
Effective return = (1 + expected return) × (1 − expense ratio) − 1.