# EMV Calculator – Expected Monetary Value

URL: https://speedycalculator.com/calculators/finance/emv/
Last updated: 2026-10-25

> The EMV calculator works out the expected monetary value of up to five project risks or opportunities by multiplying each impact by its probability and adding them up – a standard tool for risk analysis and contingency reserves.

## Inputs

- Risk 1 – probability (%)
- Risk 1 – impact
- Risk 2 – probability (%)
- Risk 2 – impact
- Risk 3 – probability (%)
- Risk 3 – impact
- Risk 4 – probability (%)
- Risk 4 – impact
- Risk 5 – probability (%)
- Risk 5 – impact

## Results

- Expected monetary value
- Expected cost of threats
- Expected value of opportunities
- Suggested contingency reserve

## Formula

```
EMV = Σ (probability × impact)
Threats are entered as negative impacts, opportunities as positive impacts
```

## Explanation

Expected monetary value turns uncertain outcomes into a single figure. A risk with a 20% chance of costing $50,000 has an EMV of −$10,000. Adding all risks gives a sensible contingency reserve for a project.

### How to use the EMV Calculator – Expected Monetary Value

- **Risk 1 – probability**
- **Risk 1 – impact**
- **Risk 2 – probability**
- **Risk 2 – impact**
- **Risk 3 – probability**
- **Risk 3 – impact**
- **Risk 4 – probability**
- **Risk 4 – impact**
- **Risk 5 – probability**
- **Risk 5 – impact**

Results update as you type, and every field accepts the units shown in its menu.

### How it works

Enter the probability and the impact of each risk (negative for a cost, positive for a gain).

### Tips

- Use figures for the same period (a month, a quarter or a year) for every input so ratios compare like with like.
- Track the metric over time – the trend usually tells you more than a single value.
- Compare your result with industry benchmarks, which vary a lot between sectors.
- Treat the result as a starting point for a decision, then check the assumptions behind each input.

### Common mistakes to avoid

- Mixing monthly and yearly numbers in the same calculation.
- Using revenue where the formula needs profit (or the other way round).
- Forgetting hidden costs such as taxes, fees, overheads or your own time.

### Inputs explained

FieldWhat to enterRisk 1 – probabilityIn %Risk 1 – impactAmount in your currencyRisk 2 – probabilityIn %Risk 2 – impactAmount in your currencyRisk 3 – probabilityIn %Risk 3 – impactAmount in your currencyRisk 4 – probabilityIn %Risk 4 – impactAmount in your currencyRisk 5 – probabilityIn %Risk 5 – impactAmount in your currency

### What each result means

- **Expected monetary value** = ([Risk 1 – probability]×[Risk 1 – impact] + [Risk 2 – probability]×[Risk 2 – impact] + [Risk 3 – probability]×[Risk 3 – impact] + [Risk 4 – probability]×[Risk 4 – impact] + [Risk 5 – probability]×[Risk 5 – impact])÷100
- **Expected cost of threats** = ([Risk 1 – probability]×min([Risk 1 – impact], 0) + [Risk 2 – probability]×min([Risk 2 – impact], 0) + [Risk 3 – probability]×min([Risk 3 – impact], 0) + [Risk 4 – probability]×min([Risk 4 – impact], 0) + [Risk 5 – probability]×min([Risk 5 – impact], 0))÷100
- **Expected value of opportunities** = ([Risk 1 – probability]×max([Risk 1 – impact], 0) + [Risk 2 – probability]×max([Risk 2 – impact], 0) + [Risk 3 – probability]×max([Risk 3 – impact], 0) + [Risk 4 – probability]×max([Risk 4 – impact], 0) + [Risk 5 – probability]×max([Risk 5 – impact], 0))÷100
- **Suggested contingency reserve** = max(-[Expected monetary value], 0)

### Example values

How the main result changes when **Risk 1 – probability** changes and everything else stays at the example values above:

Risk 1 – probability (%)Expected monetary value10-6,20015-8,70020-11,20025-13,70030-16,20040-21,200

## Worked example

Inputs — Risk 1 – probability: 20 %; Risk 1 – impact: $-50,000; Risk 2 – probability: 35 %; Risk 2 – impact: $-12,000; Risk 3 – probability: 10 %; Risk 3 – impact: $30,000; Risk 4 – probability: 0 %; Risk 4 – impact: $0; Risk 5 – probability: 0 %; Risk 5 – impact: $0.

Results — **Expected monetary value = $-11,200.00**; Expected cost of threats = $-14,200.00; Expected value of opportunities = $3,000.00; Suggested contingency reserve = $11,200.00.

## FAQ

**What is expected monetary value?**
The probability-weighted average outcome of uncertain events.

**Should threats be negative?**
Yes – enter costs as negative numbers and gains as positive.

**Is EMV the amount I will lose?**
No – it is an average; any single risk either happens in full or not at all.

**What formula does the EMV Calculator – Expected Monetary Value use?**
EMV = Σ (probability × impact).


## Sources

- [Project Management Institute – PMBOK Guide](https://www.pmi.org/)