Whether you get a white Christmas is mostly a question of geography. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information analysed 30 years of daily observations (1981–2010) to estimate, for each station, the probability of measurable snow on the ground on 25 December. High mountain towns and the snowbelts around the Great Lakes and northern New England almost always have snow; most of the South and the Pacific coast almost never do.
Pick a city from the list, taken from the NOAA analysis by Imke Durre and Michael Squires, or enter a probability for your own place – for example from your national weather service. The calculator shows the historical chance, the typical depth and snowfall when they occur, a verdict, and whether there tends to be enough snow for an igloo.
Because each Christmas is close to independent of the last, it also turns the yearly probability into longer odds: the chance of at least one white Christmas in the next ten years, the expected number, and how many years you wait on average.
How to use the White Christmas Calculator
- Place
- Chance of snow on the ground on 25 December
- Look ahead (years)
Everything is calculated in your browser, so results appear instantly and nothing you type is sent to a server.
How it works
Probabilities are the share of Christmas Days in 1981–2010 with snow depth above zero at the station. For several years the calculator assumes each Christmas is independent and uses the binomial rule.
Worked example
Burlington, Vermont, had snow on the ground on 65% of Christmas Days in 1981–2010. Over the next 10 years the chance of at least one white Christmas is 1 − 0.3510 ≈ 99.997%, you can expect 6.5 of them, and the chance that all ten are white is 0.6510 ≈ 1.35%.
Chance of a white Christmas (NOAA, 1981–2010)
| Place | Snow on the ground | Typical depth | Snow falling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crater Lake, OR | 100% | 53 in | 52% |
| Marquette, MI | 97% | 12 in | 61% |
| Caribou, ME | 86% | 7 in | 42% |
| Minot, ND | 80% | 3 in | 23% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 53% | 3 in | 28% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 32% | 2 in | 30% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 8% | – | 5% |
| Orlando, FL | 0% | – | 0% |
Formula
P(at least one white Christmas in n years) = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ · Expected white Christmases = p × n · P(every year) = pⁿ · Average wait = 1 ÷ p years
Worked example
Inputs — Place: Burlington, VT; Look ahead (years): 10.
Results — Chance of snow on the ground on Christmas Day = 65 %; Verdict = A white Christmas is a coin toss – keep your fingers crossed.; Typical snow depth = 4 in (10 cm) – median when snow is on the ground; Chance of snow falling on Christmas Day = 42 %; Typical snowfall = 0.8 in (2 cm) – median when snow falls; Enough for an igloo? = Unlikely – a typical depth of 4 in is too thin for an igloo (about 10 in or more helps)..
Key terms
- Climate normals
- 30-year averages and statistics of weather observations, updated every decade.
- Snow depth
- The depth of snow on the ground, measured once a day.
- Snowfall
- New snow that falls during the day, measured separately from depth.
Frequently asked questions
Which U.S. city is most likely to have a white Christmas?
Among NOAA's examples, Crater Lake, Oregon, had snow on the ground on every Christmas in 1981–2010, followed by Steamboat Springs, Colorado (98%) and Marquette, Michigan (97%).
What counts as a white Christmas?
NOAA's analysis counts any measurable snow on the ground on the morning of 25 December; some forecasters use a stricter 1 inch threshold.
What is the chance of a white Christmas in Burlington, Vermont?
About 65%, with a typical depth of 4 inches when there is snow.
Will I see at least one white Christmas in the next 10 years?
Almost certainly where the yearly chance is 50% or more; at 20% the chance is about 89%, at 5% about 40%.
Are white Christmases becoming rarer?
In many lower-lying places, yes – warmer Decembers mean more rain than snow. The 1991–2020 normals show lower odds than older periods for many stations.
Does snow falling on Christmas count?
It is a separate statistic, shown as the chance of snowfall on the day; snow can fall without settling, or lie from earlier storms.